All sports fans know that the winner is not always the one who was expected to win: even clear favorites lose. Thanks to this “feature” of big sports, the strategy of betting on an outsider becomes interesting: the odds here are higher, and unsuccessful bets can be offset by winnings from one or two victories of the underdog. How does the strategy of betting against a favorite work, in what cases is it applicable and who is the underdog in general? Let's talk.
How to spot an outsider
If you love sports or place bets, it will not be difficult for you to do this, but what to do when the underdog is not clear or the teams are almost equal?
In football
In this sporting discipline, I define an outsider according to the following scheme: the lower the probability of a club winning, the higher the odds for this outcome are given by the bookmaker. I suggest you consider an example, the match between Hertha and Bayern.
I believe that the clear favorite of this match is Bayern Munich, and Hertha is an outsider. To test this opinion, I look at the odds offered by the bookmaker. The odds for Hertha's victory are 7.1. This is a very big meaning, so my opinion is correct - Hertha is an outsider in this match.
This is how I determine the underdogs in all necessary matches. In practice, I noticed that the bookmaker sets odds of 4.5 and higher for the victory of an outsider club.
In basketball
To determine the outsider in a fight, I look at the bookmaker's line for the 1st quarter. For an outsider to win in the 1st quarter, the bookmaker gives odds in the range of 2.00 – 7.00. I offer an example, the Phoenix Suns - Utah Jazz match.
The bookmaker put odds on the Phoenix Suns to win in the 1st quarter, which means I consider this club an outsider. You can immediately look at the odds for the victory of one or another club and determine the favorite, but the method I proposed is more interesting and accurate.
In tennis
In this discipline, I define an outsider by the following methods:
- Bookmaker odds.
- Tennis player rating.
The higher the odds for a tennis player to win, the lower his level of play. I noticed that the bookmaker sets odds of 4.00 for an outsider. For example, the confrontation between Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Magda Linette.
The bookmaker gives odds of 4.2 for Magda Linette to win. Such a quote means that Lynette is an outsider in this confrontation.
I also look at the rankings of tennis players. For example, the 20th racket in the ranking plays with the 150th racket. In this situation, I consider the tennis player who is in 150th place in the ranking to be an outsider.
Outsiders: geniuses or psychos?
No one knows the exact definition of the word "outsider", but they are all either crazy, or geniuses, or both. The writer Ekaterina Markova, together with Nikolai Karachentsov, made a film about this museum, where she compared outsiders to holy fools.
The mentally ill have always attracted artists. Their works were seriously interested in, for example, Pablo Picasso and Paul Gauguin. The outsiders were also acquitted in 1924 by the commission of the Russian Academy of Art Sciences, headed by Wassily Kandinsky. Her conclusion: “People who seem at first glance to be pathological types represent true creativity.”
There was a renewed interest in outsider art in the second half of the twentieth century. Today there are already 400 outsider museums in the world. There is only one such museum in Russia. It is located in Moscow and you can get into it completely free, but I have never seen a more mysterious place.
Its director, Vladimir Abakumov, previously worked at the Tretyakov Gallery and was in charge of the exhibition department. He created the Museum of Outsiders with his own hands, refurbishing the store premises.
The room is dim, the black walls display the works of outsiders, from which some visitors begin to feel discomfort after ten minutes and run away. It is useless to photograph the paintings. The images turn out blurry and unrecognizable.
“At the Museum of Medicine of the Sklifosovsky Hospital,” says Vladimir Abakumov, “we held the first exhibition of creativity of the mentally ill. It was a huge success; many applications were received from other cities. We began to transport the collection around Russia, and it constantly grew. People just came and brought their work. Then in America and Switzerland we met specialists who study this art - outsider art. In 1999, we received this premises and created the exhibition that still exists today. The collection contains about four thousand works. We deal exclusively with the work of non-professional artists. Outsider art exists when the authors are not in contact with academic culture. An outsider should not know the concepts - painting, exhibition, museum. Professional artists live from selling their creations, outsiders simply create. Under no circumstances should an outsider consider what he does to be a work of art. This is internal energy that spills out onto the canvas, onto the tree.
- Are these outbursts outbursts of madness?
- Crazy people are the freest people.
- Holy fools?
“There are madmen among them too.” But foolishness is tied to religion, and each of the outsiders has his own religion.
— How do their human destinies turn out?
- As a rule, it is very difficult. These are socially maladapted people who are constantly in conflict with society. This is poverty, disorder, loneliness... They draw with anything - toothpaste on shoe boxes, fragments of furniture. They come from nowhere and go to nowhere. Outsiders don't care about being bought - they "talk it out", so their work is completely honest.
The artist Rosa Zharkikh worked in a factory all her life. Then she underwent a complex operation for a blood transfusion. Life did not promise anything good, but unexpected changes came. Moved by an unknown force, her hand began to draw images on paper, in which Rose was surprised to recognize herself - her ideal self, living not in a human world, but in another world...
In her dreams, wonderful clothes made of petals began to appear to her. Rose began to record these visions. And finally, she realized that only embroidery could convey her condition. By this point, Rosa had completely withdrawn into her own world and focused on creativity. Her friends, who still came to see her out of habit, saw strange embroideries on the walls, dresses, intricate jewelry, which at first glance seemed like balls of tangled threads... She wove them into an old Bible and made a doll with a mirror on its back. Then she invented her own alphabet, in which the usual letters were replaced with mysterious hieroglyphs, and the words were written randomly - so that even Rose herself found it difficult to read...
An outsider, creating a work, charges it with his energy. It's mostly positive. But ten percent convey twilight states, which make you feel somehow uneasy. That's why about twenty percent of the spectators try to leave quickly.
— How do doctors interpret the works of outsiders?
“For them it’s a medical history.” They determine the mental state by color changes.
— Is Van Gogh’s work madness or something else?
- Van Gogh, Goya, Vrubel, Ciurlionis... For doctors these are borderline mental states, but for us, the audience, what does that matter to us? It often happens like this: the crazier the artist, the more brilliant he is...
How to profitably bet on a lagging team
Many beginners believe that making a sports bet on an outsider is extremely unprofitable. My opinion is different; I believe that such bets not only add variety to betting, but can also bring significant profits to the bettor.
Underdogs rarely win, but sports are unpredictable. I have seen more than once how obvious outsiders demolished the favorites. Let me give you a clear example, the match between Leganes and Real Madrid.
Before the match, the bookmaker gave odds of 5.00 for the outsider, Leganes, to win. It was the return match of a two-legged cup clash. Real won the first match 3:0, so the players were confident in their abilities and entered the field without motivation.
In addition, I make value bets, because... I'm looking for overrated bookmaker odds. My experience in betting allows me to say that bookmakers greatly underestimate bets on outsiders. A large number of bets made in favor of an outsider can lead to the appearance of a value bet.
I study the odds very carefully and periodically make value bets. I take into account all the nuances of the game of outsiders:
- Motivation in the form of a cash bonus.
- The intensity of the game.
- Injuries, disqualifications of leaders, etc.
An outsider is... Understanding the concept
Quite often we hear the word “outsider”. This is not surprising, since we live in a society that is known to be very heterogeneous. There is a place for leaders, average individuals, and, of course, outcasts.
Probably, there have always been, are and will be those who, for one reason or another, did not fit into the team. These people are even scientifically designated. So, an outsider is an individual who, due to a variety of circumstances, finds himself, as it were, forced out of the society in which he exists.
Why do such people appear? Remember, there was almost certainly someone in your class who was bullied either mentally or, most horrifyingly, physically. So what is the reason for this attitude towards a person? The fact is that each layer of society is divided into even smaller layers (or niches), in which a certain number of places are allocated to people with different statuses. For example, there is always such a social group as the “elite”. At school, these are, as a rule, girls and boys from prosperous families. There are also the so-called “middle peasants” - children who are not particularly remarkable, who have good relationships with classmates and teachers. And, of course, a special place is given to outsiders. It is curious that they cannot exist at all. However, a number greater than three also has no right to life, because such a society will immediately be known as a “bunch of losers.”
If for one reason or another an outsider drops out of the team, someone else will immediately take his place. Why? Children's (and even adults') values are rarely distinguished by humanity. An outsider is someone who makes everyone else feel better, “higher.” They realize that they have a number of shortcomings (not very smart, pretty, physically developed, etc.), and therefore they simply need to know that there is someone worse than them.
Do outcasts have any similar characteristics? How can you most likely determine that a person (child or adult) is a typical outsider? There is no clear answer to these questions. However, as a rule, these are people with physical disabilities, withdrawn, and without strong abilities in anything. That is, they are initially victims. On the other hand, there are often cases when, on the contrary, extraordinary abilities become the reason for a negative attitude. This is why excellent students are often among the outcasts.
According to statistics, the most frequent guest of a school psychologist is an outsider. The importance of communication with such a child by a qualified doctor cannot be overestimated. During the training process, a lot of time should be devoted to identifying his strengths, correcting his weaknesses, as well as using various types of exercises so that he can relax mentally.
Despite the fact that the outsider is mainly a problem of the team, which consists of individuals of school age, both in higher educational institutions and at work this phenomenon is also quite widespread.
For those who are concerned or simply interested in a problem that we have only discussed in general terms in the article, I would like to recommend reading one book. It's called "Geniuses and Outsiders" (author - M. Gladwell). We hope that it will help you understand many issues and become stronger.
How to bet on underdogs
When I know an outsider, I follow this strategy:
- I carefully study the bookmaker's line.
- I choose fights in which it will be difficult for the favorite to win.
- In football, I pay attention to matches that take place according to the cup system, where there is no outcome in the form of a draw.
- I bet no more than 5% of my bankroll on one match.
In some cases, the bookmaker underestimates the strength of the underdogs, and sometimes sensations occur. Over a long distance, the system fully justifies itself.
Outspoken outsider (10 and above)
In such a situation, bookmakers rarely make mistakes, when a complete outsider can come to the clear favorite. How to be in this case? Everything is very simple, you need to look for those matches in which the favorite cannot give his best, because he has a very important game ahead. And there are plenty of such situations in football. Let's look at two cases that will give you an idea of how you can safely play on the side of complete outsiders.
An important European Cup match is ahead
We will not consider cases from top championships that are already boring to us; there are plenty of suitable situations from less popular tournaments, within which you can also successfully raise your bank.
Let's go to Bulgaria, where there is an undisputed leader in recent years in the person of FC Ludogorets. This team tried to get into the group stage of the Champions League in the 2017-2018 season.
As part of the Champions League playoffs, Ludogorets met with Israeli Hapoel and lost the first game away with a score of 2:0. The return game took place in Bulgaria on August 2. It should be noted here that for Ludogorets, participation in the group stage of the Champions League is a significant event, so the team is ready to sacrifice even its native championship in order to try to get there. But only in the first game did this Bulgarian squad lose. This suggests that in the return game the Bulgarians will give their all.
But just before this meeting, the Bulgarian champion had to play on July 29 as part of the domestic championship.
You see that literally a few days before the game with FC Hapoel we had to play in the 3rd round of our home championship with FC Lokomotiv Plovdiv. And these are the odds you could see for this fight.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv was a clear outsider. But the experienced guys boldly bet on the outsider’s plus handicap, for example, on F2 (+1.5) they gave 2.1. And this was the account of that meeting.
We see the score 0:0. Ludogorets, in view of the special importance of the European Cup match, where the team had to win back two goals, simply “leaked” this game of his native championship. There was still a whole season ahead and there was time to correct the situation in our native championship, but in the Champions League there was no room for error. The leader of the match did not field the strongest lineup and played really weakly, saving his strength for Hapoel.
All this made it possible to play on the side of a complete outsider.
An important domestic championship match is ahead
Do you think this result is a coincidence, where we see that the complete underdog Guimarães FC lost to the clear favorite Marseille with only a score of 2:1?
If you carefully study the features of this fight, it immediately becomes clear that no.
Here we see that Marseille hosted a rather weak group opponent in the group stage (3rd round) of the 2017-2018 Europa League. And he could easily defeat him with a larger score. But, it turns out, he couldn’t do this in any way, and the experienced guys, by the way, quickly realized this, having played on the outsider’s positive handicap.
But why couldn't he? And everything is very simple, a few days after this game Marseille had to play with the outright leader of the championship - PSG.
This was the 10th round of the championship.
And here we see that PSG is showing a powerful move. It was the meeting with the championship leader, which was supposed to take place two days later on the third, that did not give Marseille the opportunity to fully play in the third round of the Europa League group stage with not the most difficult opponent. And in that match, we again could bet on H2(+1.5) with odds of 2.2.
This is how we looked at two different cases when the clear favorite of the match could not give his all, because in a few days more important matches were coming up, and this already gives us the opportunity to successfully play on the outsider’s positive handicap.
How to find an outsider in a line
There is nothing complicated in the process of finding an outsider in the bookmaker’s line, now I will clearly show you everything. Let's say I open a line with football matches and choose a suitable match to bet on the underdog.
Here I observe outsiders in the following pairs:
- Lazio - Empoli. The odds for Empoli to win are 8.90.
- Chievo - Roma. The odds for Chievo to win are 5.45.
- "Atalanta" - "SPAL". The odds for SPAL to win are 11.00.
I apply a similar method to all sports disciplines, leagues and clubs. Above in the article I have already indicated by what odds I find outsiders in confrontations.
Regular outsider (odds around 6-10)
When an experienced bettor carefully studies the list of upcoming football matches, he looks for mistakes of bookmakers who have made strong distortions in the odds set. And it very often happens that the outsider put forward by bookmaker analysts is not actually such an outsider. And this often happens with incomplete outsiders, as in the case of Burnley. Pay attention to the result of this match.
This is the result of the match between Espanyol and Las Palmas, which took place as part of the 35th round of the Spanish league. The odds for the visiting team to win were quite high – 9.5. The bookmakers decided to make Espanyol the favorite, but on what basis did they make this decision?
This is how the teams were located in the standings before this meeting. And here we see that both squads are located quite low. It is clear that Las Palmas is in penultimate place with 21 points, while Espanyol is slightly higher with 39 points. But the hosts themselves are not very impressive. Maybe Espanyol showed strong results before this meeting?
So you and I don’t see this either. We are seeing defeats, and one single victory means nothing. So maybe the favorite plays powerfully at home?
The home results do not cause much enthusiasm; it is clear that sometimes Espanyol even manage to win against powerful opponents, but there are no major victories.
So maybe the guests are playing terribly on the road?
We can agree that there are no victories, but there have also been no major defeats lately.
By all indicators it is clear that the bookmakers made a mistake in this match. You could bet 1.80 on Espanyol's victory, and 4-5 on Las Palmas' victory. But 9.5 is somehow too much, which made it possible to bet on a plus handicap on an outsider with a safety net: F2(+1.5) for 1.7-1.75.
These are the mistakes of bookmakers that are worth finding and countering. Roughly speaking, when the bookmaker has greatly overestimated the capabilities of one of the teams and set too low odds for its victory, you can safely play counter-move, as in the case we considered.
How to put
Let's look at an example of making a sports forecast on an outsider in basketball:
- I’m opening a line with basketball matches in BC Marathon.
- I chose the match between Virtus Bologna and Promiteas Patras. I'm making sure that in the 1st quarter the odds for the victory of the outsider "Promiteas Patras" are at least 2.00. The bookmaker gives a quote of 4.55 for this outcome. The match suits me for betting.
- Now I analyze clubs. Marathon provides all the necessary statistics on its website. To my surprise, the outsider Promiteas Patras showed quite acceptable results in previous matches, while the favorite Virtus Bologna did not impress me.
- I think the odds for Promiteas Patras to win are significant. I am making a match prediction for the outcome of P2.
Tips from KAPER.PRO experts
Yes, betting on outsiders attracts many players, but it makes no sense to bet on everything (there will be a minus at a distance). When analyzing sporting events in basketball, football, tennis and other sports, the following must be taken into account:
- A match (meeting) with a principal opponent. The result of such games is generally unpredictable; often the weakest team in the tournament can simply defeat the clear favorite without returning goals. There are a lot of examples, even if we take the 2009-2010 FA Cup season, then Manchester United dropped out and the club suffered a 1:0 defeat from long-time enemy Leeds United (the difference in class was 2 divisions).
- Strong motivation. Underdog teams tear themselves apart when they are in the relegation zone at the end of the season, but here you also need to take into account that the favorite does not have any goals, for example, to rise higher in the table.
- Prize. Sometimes the owners of clubs and even other teams can promise players a reward if they win a certain game. Take 2009, then Rubin promised Krylia Sovetov 500 thousand euros if they beat Spartak, which they did with a score of 2:1, although the odds on Krylia were 8.00. Rubin took this step to increase his lead in points in the standings.
- It is better to place bets on outsiders in football and other sports just before the start of the match. At this time, all the hits are placed, which are loaded on the favorites, and accordingly, the odds on the underdogs increase.
And of course, you need to take into account the form of key players and so that key athletes are not disqualified or injured.
